Is social distancing and isolation working to flatten the curve of new corona virus infections? A quantitative approach

Is social distancing and social isolation working to flatten the curve of new corona virus infections and how do you measure the impact?

Here in my home state of Vermont I took the published data of positive test results to date (3/21) and then fit a "best fit" line to the existing data using google sheet formula GROWTH. I then compared the 'best fit line' against actual data to date to verify that the function was closely approximating current data.

I then projected this data out 7 days into the future. The resulting chart for Vermont looks like this

The actual number of positive test results on 3/21 was 49. The projected curve goes out 7 days into the future.

As shown the projected number of positives in 7 days is predicted to be 498.

Over the next 7 days I can plot the actual number as they are calculated and compare them against the prediction. If we "flatten the curve" the actual will be below the line.

Updated 3/22 - first sign of 'flatten the curve'



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