Is social distancing and social isolation working to flatten the curve of new corona virus infections and how do you measure the impact?
Here in my home state of Vermont I took the published data of positive test results to date (3/21) and then fit a "best fit" line to the existing data using google sheet formula GROWTH. I then compared the 'best fit line' against actual data to date to verify that the function was closely approximating current data.
I then projected this data out 7 days into the future. The resulting chart for Vermont looks like this
The actual number of positive test results on 3/21 was 49. The projected curve goes out 7 days into the future.
As shown the projected number of positives in 7 days is predicted to be 498.
Over the next 7 days I can plot the actual number as they are calculated and compare them against the prediction. If we "flatten the curve" the actual will be below the line.
Updated 3/22 - first sign of 'flatten the curve'